Morning Briefing
16th October 2026, 9:45AM HKT
πŸ›‘ Defensives steadied markets: the Dow rose 1.08% and the S&P 500 0.33% as healthcare led and seven in 10 S&P stocks gained, while the FTSE 100 rose 1.08% to a seven-week high
⚠ The AI selloff spread: Anthropic's Q3 revenue growth slowed, CoreWeave's credit default swaps hit a record, and Dell (-6.80%) and HPE (-7.10%) extended losses. The chip index fell for a seventh straight day
⚠ US PPI jumped 1.3% in September (0.5% expected) and 6.3% year-on-year, the biggest annual rise since 2022, while retail sales beat at 0.8%. Even so, Treasury yields fell about 10bp
Market Overview
  • US stocks rotated out of tech: the Dow gained 1.08% to 52,177.69 and the Russell 2000 1.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.05%. Healthcare rose 2.36%, with Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth and Walmart helped by Deutsche Bank upgrades.
  • AI hardware stayed under pressure after Anthropic reported Q3 revenue of $16.8 billion, slower growth than before, and TSMC struck a cautious note on 2027 despite record profit. HPE, Dell, Arista and Everpure fell, and Nvidia lost 1.84%.
  • Software and consumer names rebounded: AppLovin, Intuit and Autodesk rose more than 6%, CoreWeave recovered 5.94%, and Nike (+5.21%) led the Dow. Equifax, Reddit and Fair Isaac led the S&P 500.
  • Treasuries rallied despite the hot PPI: the 10-year fell about 10bp to 5.09%, as Fed's Bowman and Daly signalled no need to rush another hike. Odds of an October hike eased to about 27%.
  • Asia is rebounding this morning after Thursday's rout: the KOSPI is 2.81% higher after a 7.6% slide, and the Nikkei 1.72% higher after a 4.9% drop.
Asset Class Snapshot
Major US Index
Dow Jones
+1.08%
Major European Index
FTSE 100
+1.08%
Major Asian Index
KOSPI
+2.81%
Bond Yields
Germany Bund 10Y
-1.53%
Risk Indicators
AI Credit Stress (CoreWeave CDS at Record)
Inflation Re-acceleration (CPI and PPI)
Middle East Conflict and Hormuz Shipping
Fed Hike Risk
Asian Tech Volatility
Defensive Rotation and Earnings Support
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
πŸ“Š Thursday 15 October 2026 close β€” the Dow rises 1% as investors rotate from AI hardware into defensives
US Indices
S&P 500
7,744.06
+0.33%
Dow Jones
52,177.69
+1.08%
Nasdaq 100
29,935.60
-0.05%
Russell 2000
2,767.27
+1.38%
Today: Fed Chair Warsh speaks (11:30 HKT), plus import prices and industrial production. China reports Q3 GDP on Monday (10:00 HKT). Analysts expect 30.6% Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth.
  • Seven of 11 sectors rose, led by healthcare (+2.36%) and materials. International Paper and Sherwin-Williams gained, Marsh rose about 5% on stronger profit, and Home Depot, Salesforce and UnitedHealth led the Dow. Equifax (+7.25%) and Fair Isaac rose.
  • AI hardware fell again: HPE (-7.10%) and Dell (-6.80%) extended losses on worries about AI firms exposed to higher borrowing costs, and Arista, Everpure, Lam Research, Applied Materials and Teradyne declined. Rocket Lab fell 6.64% after delaying the first launch of its Neutron rocket to next year. CoreWeave's five-year CDS hit a record, implying more than a 60% chance of default within five years.
  • PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, the fastest since March 2022, driven by energy. Retail sales rose 0.8%, helped by a 6.4% jump in gasoline spending, but control-group sales rose only 0.1%. Jobless claims came in lower than expected.
S&P 500 Heatmap
Top 5 Movers – S&P 500
Gainers
EFX
161.26
+7.25%
RDDT
159.36
+7.24%
FICO
769.93
+6.99%
IP
34.10
+6.90%
APP
279.29
+6.52%
Losers
WMB
69.22
-4.92%
ANET
185.58
-5.04%
P
133.40
-5.72%
DELL
473.39
-6.80%
HPE
58.63
-7.10%
Top 5 Movers – Dow Jones
Gainers
NKE
37.14
+5.21%
CRM
246.74
+4.57%
HD
308.24
+4.31%
SHW
336.92
+3.81%
UNH
406.67
+2.79%
Losers
CVX
219.32
-1.23%
MRK
145.19
-1.48%
CAT
735.64
-1.78%
NVDA
217.23
-1.84%
CSCO
109.85
-3.34%
Top 5 Movers – Nasdaq 100
Gainers
APP
279.29
+6.52%
INTU
330.17
+6.36%
ADSK
245.16
+6.07%
CRWV
69.69
+5.94%
CPRT
27.75
+5.63%
Losers
LRCX
277.46
-3.30%
CSCO
109.85
-3.34%
AMAT
430.01
-3.72%
TER
343.21
-4.52%
RKLB
55.25
-6.64%
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
πŸ“Š Thursday 15 October 2026 close β€” European defensives offset a chip slump as the FTSE 100 hits a seven-week high
European Indices
EURO STOXX 50
6,168.26
-0.36%
FTSE 100
10,840.35
+1.08%
DAX
25,382.62
+0.33%
CAC 40
7,934.70
+0.78%
Today: Eurozone September CPI (17:00 HKT; 3.8% expected) and a speech by BoE Governor Bailey.
  • European chip stocks fell on Anthropic's slower growth and the global AI selloff: ASML lost 4.19% and Infineon 5.20%, and ASM International, Aixtron and STMicro also fell sharply. Nordea dropped 7.83% after suspending buybacks while the ECB reviews its capital models, and Siemens Energy and Schneider declined.
  • Defensives led the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%: Novartis and AstraZeneca added the most points, and Rheinmetall (+4.34%), Hermes, L'Oreal and Danone gained. Pernod Ricard rose as sales fell less than expected.
  • The FTSE 100 rose 1.08% to 10,840.35 after UK GDP unexpectedly grew 0.1% in August and Chancellor Healey reaffirmed fiscal discipline, while Antofagasta fell 4.1% on lower copper output. The CAC 40 gained 0.78% and the DAX 0.33%.
Top 5 Movers – EURO STOXX 50
Gainers
RHM GY
1,026.00
+4.34%
RMS FP
1,338.50
+3.32%
OR FP
406.85
+3.21%
ABI BB
72.92
+2.68%
AIR FP
194.78
+2.40%
Losers
SU FP
258.00
-2.42%
NOKIA FH
8.40
-3.31%
ASML NA
1,464.20
-4.19%
IFX GY
52.47
-5.20%
NDA FH
15.65
-7.83%
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
πŸ‡­πŸ‡° Hong Kong markets will be closed on Monday 19 October for Chung Yeung Festival.
πŸ“Š Friday 16 October 2026 β€” Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, KOSPI and TAIEX as of early trade; Nifty 50 reflects Thursday's close
Asian Indices
Nikkei 225
65,546.44
+1.72%
Hang Seng
24,321.45
+1.08%
Shanghai Comp.
3,723.80
+0.44%
KOSPI
5,709.83
+2.81%
Nifty 50
22,997.35
+1.66%
TAIEX
47,466.03
+0.98%
Ahead: China's Q3 GDP, September industrial production and retail sales on Monday (10:00 HKT), and the loan prime rate on Tuesday.
  • The Nikkei 225 is up 1.72% at 65,546.44 after plunging about 4.9% on Thursday in the global AI selloff. IT services names BayCurrent (+17.25%), SHIFT (+16.52%) and Nomura Research surge, and Kioxia rebounds 5.78%, while utilities Tokyo Gas and Osaka Gas lag.
  • The KOSPI is 2.81% higher after a 7.6% plunge on Thursday, its worst day since July, which left it 39% below its June record. The TAIEX is 0.98% higher, a day after TSMC reported a sixth straight record quarterly profit but struck a cautious note on 2027.
  • The Hang Seng is up 1.08%, led by BeOne Medicines, Innovent, New Oriental, JD.com and Baidu, while OOIL and CATL lag. The Shanghai Composite is 0.44% higher, and India's Nifty 50 rose 1.66% on Thursday.
Top 5 Movers – Nikkei 225
Gainers
6532 BayCurrent
10,195.00
+17.25%
3697 SHIFT
1,058.00
+16.52%
4307 Nomura Research
6,116.00
+6.81%
285A Kioxia
13,615.00
+5.78%
6702 Fujitsu
4,519.00
+5.51%
Losers
9531 Tokyo Gas
5,960.00
-1.16%
7733 Olympus
1,698.00
-1.41%
9532 Osaka Gas
5,524.00
-1.42%
8233 Takashimaya
2,151.50
-1.87%
9602 Toho
1,522.00
-2.59%
Top 5 Movers – Hang Seng Index
Gainers
6160 BeOne Medicines-H
224.80
+4.27%
1801 Innovent
91.25
+3.99%
9901 New Oriental
46.90
+3.17%
9618 JD.com
108.10
+3.05%
9888 Baidu
80.65
+2.94%
Losers
868 Xinyi Glass
7.95
-0.25%
1044 Hengan Intl
19.94
-0.40%
836 China Res. Power
20.02
-1.09%
3750 CATL-H
438.60
-2.23%
316 Orient Overseas
162.80
-3.21%
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
Government Bond Yields
US 2Y Treasury
4.78%
-0.08%
US 5Y Treasury
4.92%
-0.17%
US 10Y Treasury
5.09%
-0.27%
US 30Y Treasury
5.43%
-0.29%
UK Gilts 10Y
5.37%
-0.92%
Germany Bund 10Y
3.41%
-1.53%
China 10Y
1.66%
+0.03%
Japan 10Y
2.94%
-0.31%
% change for US, China and Japan reflects the move in bond price; for UK Gilts and German Bunds it reflects the move in yield.
  • Treasuries rallied on Thursday on haven demand and Fed comments, even with PPI running hot: the 2-year fell about 5bp and the 10-year about 10bp to around 5.09%. Yields are edging up this morning, with the 10-year at 5.09% and the 30-year at 5.43%.
  • European bonds rallied: the 10-year gilt fell 0.92% to 5.37% as Healey backed fiscal discipline before the 28 October Budget, and the Bund fell 1.53% to 3.41%. The JGB 10-year is at 2.94%.
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
Currency Markets
Dollar Index (DXY)
102.06
+0.06%
EUR/USD
1.121
-0.09%
GBP/USD
1.3271
-0.03%
USD/JPY
158.14
-0.09%
AUD/USD
0.6926
+0.07%
NZD/USD
0.5628
+0.11%
USD/CAD
1.4196
-0.07%
USD/CHF
0.8281
-0.17%
USD/CNH
6.6914
-0.03%
USD/SGD
1.2826
-0.06%
USD/INR
95.055
0.00%
USD/IDR
17,938
0.00%
USD/PHP
63.14
-0.14%
  • The dollar index is steady at 102.06 after falling on Thursday as Treasury yields dropped.
  • EUR/USD is at 1.121 and GBP/USD at 1.3271, after sterling firmed on stronger UK GDP data. USD/JPY is at 158.14, and the Australian dollar was the weakest G10 currency during the risk-off move.
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
Commodities & Energy
Gold Spot ($/oz)
4,150.27
-0.51%
Silver Spot ($/oz)
57.15
-0.44%
WTI Crude ($/bbl)
97.56
-0.42%
Brent Crude ($/bbl)
105.59
-0.28%
On Thursday, WTI jumped about 3% to near $98 after two cargo ships sank near the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine said it would resume strikes on Russian refineries. The IEA said it will speed up the remaining releases of about 100 million barrels, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel.
  • Oil is slightly lower this morning, with Brent down 0.28% at $105.59 and WTI down 0.42% at $97.56, as the faster IEA stock releases offset supply risks.
  • Gold rose about 1.5% on Thursday as yields fell, but is 0.51% lower at $4,150.27/oz this morning. Silver is down 0.44% at $57.15/oz.
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
Economic Calendar
Thursday, 15 October 2026 β€” Results
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Fed Beige Book
02:00 HKT
Released
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
PPI (MoM) (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Actual: 1.3%Fcst: 0.5%Prev: 0.4%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
PPI (YoY) (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Actual: 6.3%Fcst: 5.4%Prev: 5.6% (rev)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Actual: 0.8%Fcst: 0.3%Prev: 1.3% (rev)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Retail Control (MoM) (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Actual: 0.1%Prev: 1.2%
Friday, 16 October 2026 β€” Today
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Fed Chair Warsh Speaks
11:30 HKT
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
CPI (YoY) (Sep)
17:00 HKT
Fcst: 3.8%Prev: 3.8%
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)
17:00 HKT
Fcst: 2.5%Prev: 2.5%
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
CPI (MoM) (Sep)
17:00 HKT
Fcst: 0.6%Prev: 0.4%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Fcst: 0.6%Prev: 0.7%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
21:15 HKT
Fcst: 0.4%Prev: 0.0%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Capacity Utilization (Sep)
21:15 HKT
Fcst: 76.5%Prev: 76.3%
Monday, 19 October 2026
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
GDP (YoY) (Q3)
10:00 HKT
Prev: 4.3%
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
10:00 HKT
Prev: 5.2%
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
10:00 HKT
Prev: 0.4%
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep)
10:00 HKT
Prev: -7.2%
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct)
22:00 HKT
Prev: 32
Tuesday, 20 October 2026
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³
Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Oct)
09:00 HKT
Prev: 3.50%
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)
17:00 HKT
Prev: 25.8
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ
Housing Starts (Sep)
20:30 HKT
Prev: 1.275M
Wednesday, 21 October 2026
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅
Exports (YoY) (Sep)
07:50 HKT
Prev: 19.3%
πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅
Trade Balance (Sep)
07:50 HKT
Prev: -1,111.9B
Source: Bloomberg, TradingView
Disclaimers

This material is provided for informational and reference purposes only to the intended recipients and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to enter into any transaction in securities, nor does it constitute investment advice.


The information contained in this publication only reflects current market conditions and the judgment of Ethivo Asset Management (HK) Limited (the “Ethivo”) on the date of compilation. It does not represent an accurate forecast of individual securities or market trends, and judgments are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Certain information or data in this document has been obtained from unaffiliated third parties; Ethivo has reasonable belief that such information or data is accurate, complete and up to the date as indicated, but Ethivo makes no warranty or representation as to the completeness and accuracy of data and information sourced from such unaffiliated third parties. Ethivo, nor its shareholders, directors and employees shall not be liable for any errors or omissions in the information provided in this material, and Ethivo shall not be responsible for any loss incurred by any person as a result of reliance on or use of such information.


Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, future return is not guaranteed, and a loss of your original capital may occur. If necessary, you should seek independent professional advice. The material has been prepared and issued by Ethivo Asset Management (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.


This material is intended solely for distribution to professional investors and should not be distributed, circulated, or used by persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Ethivo.

Hang Seng Index
24,186.83
β–² +124.11
+0.52%
Shanghai Composite Index
3,716.28
β–² +8.81
+0.24%
Nikkei 225
65,324.29
β–² +898.34
+1.39%
KOSPI Index
5,668.05
β–² +113.83
+2.05%
ASX (S&P/ASX 200 INDEX)
8,806.73
β–² +87.01
+1.00%
Straits Times Index STI
5,417.58
β–² +14.08
+0.26%
Key Market Drivers
  • Regional markets tracked overnight gains on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones up 1.1%, as investors snapped up bargains following a selloff in chip stocks amid concerns over AI investment.
  • Hong Kong technology shares rebounded as investors assessed the outlook for artificial intelligence spending, with futures pricing in a 73% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the October 28 meeting.
  • The Shanghai Composite rose 0.24% to 3,716.28, rebounding from a more than one-year low, though worries about a renewed flare-up in China–EU trade tensions lingered.
  • The Nikkei 225 rose 1.39% to 65,324.29, led by BayCurrent Inc. and Shift Inc., with 194 shares rising against 29 falling.
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 Movers – Nikkei 225
Gainers
BAYCURRENT INC10,195.00+17.25%
SHIFT INC1,058.00+16.52%
KAWASAKI HEAVY INDUSTRIES2,282.50+6.41%
IBIDEN CO LTD9,764.00+5.98%
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES3,796.00+5.42%
Losers
TOHO CO LTD1,526.00-2.34%
RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO LTD4,709.00-1.98%
OLYMPUS CORP1,690.00-1.80%
TAKASHIMAYA CO LTD2,158.00-1.53%
FAST RETAILING CO LTD75,580.00-1.07%
Top 5 Movers – Hang Seng Index
Gainers
LENOVO GROUP LTD28.06+8.01%
LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD5.05+6.21%
NEW ORIENTAL EDUCATION48.14+5.90%
BEONE MEDICINES LTD-H225.00+4.36%
LI NING CO LTD13.28+3.91%
Losers
CHINA LIFE INSURANCE-H23.62-2.88%
WH GROUP LTD6.46-2.57%
POP MART INTERNATIONAL142.20-2.27%
WUXI APPTEC-H196.20-2.19%
HUA HONG GRACE SEMICONDUCTOR74.95-2.09%
Source: Bloomberg
Latest Headlines
Japanese Stocks Open Higher as Nikkei Rises 1.39%
Japanese shares tracked overnight gains on Wall Street as investors snapped up bargains following a selloff in chip stocks, with the Nikkei 225 rising 898.34 points to 65,324.29.
Hong Kong Stocks Open Higher as Tech Shares Rebound
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.52% to 24,186.83 as investors assessed the outlook for AI spending and the path of U.S. interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 meeting.
China Feihe Shares Slide After 400M Yuan Loan to Chairman
China Feihe shares fell as much as 2.8% in Hong Kong as Citi flagged negative investor sentiment over the dairy firm's surprise 400 million yuan offshore loan to its chairman.
Chinese Stocks Close Mixed as Shanghai Composite Rises 0.24%
The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded 0.24% to 3,716.28 from a more than one-year low, though both benchmarks remained on course for a fourth straight weekly decline amid China–EU trade tensions.
Source: Bloomberg
Disclaimers
This material is provided for informational and reference purposes only to the intended recipients and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to enter into any transaction in securities, nor does it constitute investment advice.
The information contained in this publication only reflects current market conditions and the judgment of Ethivo Asset Management (HK) Limited (the “Ethivo”) on the date of compilation. It does not represent an accurate forecast of individual securities or market trends, and judgments are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Certain information or data in this document has been obtained from unaffiliated third parties; Ethivo has reasonable belief that such information or data is accurate, complete and up to the date as indicated, but Ethivo makes no warranty or representation as to the completeness and accuracy of data and information sourced from such unaffiliated third parties. Ethivo, nor its shareholders, directors and employees shall not be liable for any errors or omissions in the information provided in this material, and Ethivo shall not be responsible for any loss incurred by any person as a result of reliance on or use of such information.
Investment involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, future return is not guaranteed, and a loss of your original capital may occur. If necessary, you should seek independent professional advice. The material has been prepared and issued by Ethivo Asset Management (HK) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
This material is intended solely for distribution to professional investors and should not be distributed, circulated, or used by persons in any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Ethivo.