• Markets diverged sharply Tuesday: Dow Jones crossed 52,000 for the first time (+0.64% to 51,999.67) as financials surged on the Iran peace deal optimism, while the Nasdaq 100 tumbled -1.89% to 29,968.13 — its worst day in 2 weeks — as a violent chip sector rotation reversed the prior session's gains. The S&P 500 slipped -0.57% to 7,511.35 and Russell 2000 -0.87% to 2,939.20 as small caps pulled back after their strong run.
• Bank of Japan hiked rates by +25bp to 1.00% — its highest rate since 1995 — in a widely anticipated move. Despite the hike, USD/JPY rose to 160.34 as the market had fully priced the move and the BOJ's statement maintained a cautious, data-dependent stance rather than committing to further hikes. ING sees the next BOJ hike in December at the earliest, conditional on the Iran deal holding. The yen's persistent weakness despite hikes underscores the structural carry-trade dynamics.
• Chip stocks had their worst session since June 5: CBOE Global Markets -9.45%, Monolithic Power -9.29%, Lumentum -8.55%, Intel -8.45%, Coherent -7.50%, Marvell -9.78% in the Nasdaq 100, KLA -7.44%. The reversal came as Synopsys and Cadence both cut EDA software guidance, signalling a potential softening in chip design activity — a leading indicator for semiconductor equipment demand. The commentary directly contradicted Oracle's $95B AI capex claims from last week.
• European equities continued their steady gains: EURO STOXX 50 +0.45% to 6,257.42 as banks outperformed (+1.6%) on the peace deal — UniCredit +4.17%, Intesa Sanpaolo +2.91%, Santander +2.43%. Tech and telecoms lagged (-1.68% and -1.75% respectively). FTSE 100 +0.61% to 10,494.21 as financials (NatWest +2.2%, HSBC +1.8%, Barclays +1.5%) and defence (Rolls-Royce +2.6%, BAE Systems +2.8%) drove gains. DAX barely positive (+0.07% to 24,910.41); CAC 40 +0.75% to 8,447.27.
• Asian markets were split Tuesday: Nikkei 225 +0.41% to 69,705.94 — briefly crossing 70,000 for the first time in history before pulling back — boosted by SpaceX's IPO excitement and semiconductor names rebounding; KOSPI surged +2.10% on tech sector recovery; Hang Seng -0.14% to 24,495.85 as energy names fell on oil's continued decline; Shanghai -0.43% to 4,074.29; Nifty 50 +0.57%; TAIEX -0.76% on profit-taking.
• Oil extended its decline: Brent fell further to $79.11 (+0.19% consolidation after Monday's drop) and WTI $76.27 (+0.26%) as tankers began moving through the Strait of Hormuz — Trump confirmed the strait would be "completely open by Friday." Gold gained +0.22% to $4,340.14/oz on dollar softness; Silver +0.34% to $70.25/oz. German Bund 10Y fell to 2.93% as oil disinflation reduces ECB hiking expectations; UK Gilts 10Y to 4.79%.

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